The Armenian people regrettably end 2023 with a demoralizing retreat that began with the defeat in the 44-day War in 2020. Over the last millennium, the Armenian people have experienced several waves of depopulation of Artsakh in varying degrees, but the Armenians with their well-known tenacity always eventually returned to their homes. While the latest wave of depopulation, which now is rightfully characterized as “ethnic cleansing”, has been the most severe and complete, however we must have the wisdom to look at the whole picture of the current events to understand what happened. The crime of ethnic cleansing of Artsakh was committed in the latest upheaval of the age-old competition of the “Old and New Silk Roads” on the Eurasian continent.

2024 will be a year full of uncertainties where difficult choices have to be made in this fast changing environment of political alignments and realignments. The only constant in this unstable environment are the strategic interests of the parties involved, therefore we are forced to rely on those unchanging strategic interests of the important players in order to draw a roadmap of the consecutive steps to be taken to reach our strategic vision.

The recent Israeli-Palestinian full-blown war has indefinitely suspended the India to Europe route that was supposed to go through the Arabian Peninsula, thus intensifying the rivalry between the international competing interests for the alternative routes on the Eurasian continent. The three alternative routes for the Eurasian continent are:
1. from Baltic Sea to Persian Gulf,
2. the North-South road from India to the Black Sea and
3. the East-West road from China to Europe through the Middle East
All three of these routes have one more thing in common, that is they go through the South Caucasus. Consequently, the competition between geopolitical centers has grown sharply for influence over South Caucasus, as an important integral and constituent link of these axes. In this sense, there is no longer a separate Artsakh issue, but rather a transformed Armenian issue which includes Artsakh.

In this context should also be viewed the following events in 2023:
1. the granting of a new European status to Georgia at the end of the year,
2. Europe’s strategic entry into the South Caucasus region,
3. French and Indian arms supplies to Armenia,
4. Iranian-Azerbaijani confrontation throughout the year, especially Iran’s resolute rejection of the Meghri corridor under Russian-Turkish control,
5. Fifteen unprecedented Turkish-Azerbaijani joint military exercises in 2023 were obviously conducted not only against Armenia, but also against Iran.

Under these circumstances the Armenian people must make a decisive choice, relying on shared civilizational values and geopolitical interests. From time immemorial Armenians have straddled the civilizational divide; on the one hand belonging to the European civilization and on the other hand being a people of oriental temperament. Armenians have always played the important role of bridging the cultural gap between the East and the West. In this sense, the current state of affairs does not differ much from the past. This convergence of civilizations and our role in bridging the cultural gap instills hope and faith in the vision of our bright future, where our national security will be ensured which will facilitate grater foreign economic investments and technological advancements for Armenia.

Instead of visualizing Armenia as a global bridge, the neo-Bolshevik provincial governors ruling Armenia want to entrap us in the Russian-Turkish economic and political swamp under the guise of the so called Eurasian Regionalization. The parochial governors of Armenia are cunningly begging for someone else’s dream of “Regional Crossroads” and “Peace of the Century” to come true, without realizing that all international trade routes presuppose first and foremost ensuring safe passage with necessary security forces in place. Mere wishful thinking without security guarantees will neither bring “Peace” nor open the “Crossroads”. If the intent is to pursue a policy of neutrality reminiscent of Finlandization, one must first have the will and tenacity of the Finns, who forced into submission a tyrant like Stalin to recognize their wish to be independent.

All the assurances given by the provincial governors, that the neighbors who wanted to conquer Artsakh would be satisfied with its handover, have evaporated into thin air and turned out to be completely false. The political resolution adopted by the Mejlis of Azerbaijan that occupied Artsakh regarding the so-called Western Azerbaijan at the end of this year proved that Azerbaijan’s appetite for Armenian lands is insatiable.

We will always be at the losing end as long as we do not overcome the fear instilled in our people by this defeatist and treasonous regime and as long as we do not believe in our ability to become a ”nation under arms” which will turn us into a “hedgehog” that no one would be willing to mess with.

The ongoing daily self-sacrificing struggle of the imprisoned members of Sasna Tsrer and the round-the-clock protest sit-in at the Opera Square by our citizens proves that the resistance of the Armenian people is inexhaustible and the flame of the torch they hold will not only illuminate our way like a lighthouse, but will also ignite a new fire of resistance.

National Democratic Alliance
December 29, 2023